I made this prediction for Florida back on July 10th (publicly, on my Facebook account).
In the image above, you can see that the herd immunity threshold for Florida was hit on July 17th (7 days after I made this original prediction).
It’s important to note that herd immunity is not defined as when people stop becoming infected. Herd immunity is defined as when a substantial enough portion of the population has become infected and developed immunity such that the rate of new infections within the population starts to drop. Please see my previous blog post about herd immunity to understand the basics.
By observing the peak of the daily new cases in Florida, you can see that this happened on July 17th. Also notice that when I made this prediction on July 10th, all of the media was stating that Florida was just getting started with new infections and it was going to exponentially spread through most of the population if they didn’t do something drastic.
The reason I was confident that curve was going to peak in 7 days or less was due to sophisticated mathematical models that demonstrate that herd immunity for this virus is somewhere between 10-20%. I wrote a blog post on how these models work, so please review this post if you want to learn more about herd immunity and the models that show that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is in the 10-20% range for this virus.
Previous Blog Post on Herd Immunity ——> https://sciencewithdrdoug.wordpress.com/2020/07/18/how-close-are-we-to-herd-immunity/)
For Florida, it looks like herd immunity occurred at around 18% of the population.
As I am assembling data for more states, I see the same pattern. States that have already attained herd immunity are showing herd immunity thresholds in the 15%-20% range. This same percentage range is being observed in other countries as well. Because of the consistency across the board in terms of the observed herd immunity threshold in many states and other countries, and the validity of the mathematical models, these observed peaks are not due to increased use of masks and lockdown orders; rather, these observed peaks in the daily infection rate are the direct result of herd immunity being achieved in the population of interest.
Remember, herd immunity is micro-regional, so you may see some pockets in Florida that haven’t fully reached this level yet, and we may see some ripples or smaller peaks in the daily infection rate at a later date. When herd immunity is reached over a large geographic area like Florida, that is more or less an average, and this indicates that the “worse is over”.
The reason the herd immunity threshold is much less than the 70% rate that most prognosticators are spouting is because of the heterogeneity of susceptibility and transmission in the population. This heterogeneity is more than likely due to the presence of cross-reactive memory T-cells residing in the immune system of a good portion of the population. These cross-reactive memory T-cells were evidently programmed from previous infections to other prevalent coronaviruses. Several research papers have recently demonstrated that these cross-reactive T-cells to SARS-CoV-2 are present in a large portion of the population, many years before these people even come in contact with SARS-CoV-2. This is a separate form of immunity that is NOT BASED ON ANTIBODIES. The antibody response is based on memory B-Cells, which is a separate component and mechanism used by our immune system to fight off invaders. In essence, previous exposures to the other 4 circulating coronaviruses that cause the common cold have rendered a good portion of the society somewhat immune to SARS-CoV-2 via the T-Cell response, and this resident immunity in a good portion of the population is probably one of the major components to such a low Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) in the population.
Again, this is much better news than we are being fed via the media. With only 15-20% of the population needing to be infected to see this virus lose its ability to spread throughout the population, what would the purpose of a vaccine be?
(New Post: What if God left behind a message in the laws of nature that reveals his identity? –> CLICK HERE TO READ )
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